VEGETATION COVER TRANSFORMATION: A CASE OF MULTITEMPORAL ANALYSIS

Urban expansion and environmental degradation increasingly challenge the resilience of intermediate cities in the Global South. Ibarra, Ecuador, located in the hydrological basin of the Mira River, exhibits significant vegetation cover loss due to rapid urbanization, extractive activities, and insufficient data-driven planning. Existing territorial development plans often lack integration with spatiotemporal environmental analysis, limiting their operational effectiveness. This paper presents a geospatial methodology to evaluate vegetation cover transformations from 1990 to 2018 using ArcGIS-based multi-temporal analysis and high-resolution satellite imagery. Thirteen environmental and anthropogenic variables were classified, quantified, and compared across six temporal snapshots. These results were cross-referenced with the strategic objectives of the Development and Land Use Planning Plan (PDOT) 2021 effective until 2040, to assess their relationship. The findings indicate that natural land cover decreased from 1.8 times to 1.24 times that of anthropogenic use between 1990 and 2018. Deforestation was 1.13 times greater than reforestation by 2016, while forest areas decreased by up to 2.4 times in key zones. The proposed approach allowed for a critical assessment of spatial policies within the PDOT. The methodology provides a transferable tool for sustainable land planning and urban governance, enhancing data-informed decision-making in cities across Latin America.