Psychosocial latent profiles of adolescent alcohol use in Ecuador

Purpose: Adolescent alcohol use is a major public health concern with long-term family, social, and academic consequences. This study aimed to identify psychosocial latent profiles of alcohol use in Ecuadorian adolescents and to examine the factors associated with transitions from low- to high-risk drinking. Methods: A cross-sectional sample of 1266 students aged 12–18 years from three schools in Esmeraldas, Ecuador, completed the AUDIT, APNE, PRQ, and CLASS. Fuzzy C-Means clustering was applied to z-standardized psychosocial indicators to identify profile solutions, and a CART decision-tree model was used to examine the hierarchical contribution of predictors of profile membership. Results: The three-cluster solution proved most informative. It identified a low-use profile (29.9%), a social/transitional profile characterized by moderate consumption, higher parental permissiveness, and elevated alcohol expectancies (56.7%), and a problematic profile marked by more frequent risky and aggressive behaviors (13.4%). The CART model explained 77.6% of the variance in profile membership. Non-normative parental rules emerged as the root predictor, followed by physical/cognitive alcohol-related problems and alcohol expectancies. Conclusion: The findings support a severity continuum of adolescent alcohol use rather than fixed categories. Alcohol-specific parental rules, alcohol expectancies, and early alcohol-related consequences appear to be central markers of psychosocial risk. The social/transitional profile may represent a key target for early screening and tiered prevention in school and family settings.