A simulation-based decision support framework for tsunami evacuation in coastal areas

As natural disasters intensify, timely evacuation planning becomes increasingly critical. This study develops a spatial Decision Support System (DSS) for tsunami evacuation planning, grounded in a terrain-aware Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model. The DSS integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with DES to capture elevation- and slope-informed pedestrian travel times, enabling context-specific evacuation analysis. Evacuation performance is assessed through three metrics: average evacuation time (efficiency), maximum individual evacuation time (equity), and evacuation success rate within a critical 20-min threshold (effectiveness). The methodology is applied to a case study of Bahía de Caráquez, Ecuador, where scenario analysis shows that improving shelter accessibility, applying terrain-aware routing, and accounting for mobility conditions enhance evacuation performance, particularly in remote and terrain-constrained areas. To extend these findings, Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Desirability-based Optimization Methodology (DOM) are used to approximate nonlinear mobility-performance relationships and to identify operating conditions under which efficiency, equity, and effectiveness remain jointly favourable. Overall, the framework links simulation outputs to actionable planning guidance, supporting evidence-based evacuation decisions in tsunami-prone regions.